Economist
Oliver’s insights – Medium term investment returns face five key constraints
24 September
Key points Five mega trends still point to risks of a more inflation prone/lower growth environment than pre-pandemic. These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Gold at record highs – can it keep going? Implications for investors
18 September
Key points  The gold price has surged to record highs. Key drivers have been central banks increasing their gold reserves, rate cuts, a renewed downtrend in the $US and demand for a hedge against public debt worries and geopolitical...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian growth on the mend – implications for profits and interest rates
11 September
Key points Australia is seeing a gradual economic recovery with growth likely to reach 2.5% next year. This in turn is underpinning a likely upswing in profits. The RBA is expected to cut again in November, February and May to 2.85%, although the...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Seven key charts on the state of the Australian property market
23 July
Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than many portray it to be. The Australian housing is cycle is turning up again; falling interest rates are the key driver; along with a chronic undersupply of homes of...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Five charts on investing to keep in mind in uncertain times like now
25 June
Key points  The US intervention in the war with Iran has substantially increased the risk of disruption to global oil supplies and a deeper impact on share markets. But predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focused on...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven reasons Australia is likely to avoid recession from Trump’s shock
16 April
Key points President Trump’s trade war poses a threat to Australian economic growth particularly via the indirect impact of weaker global activity driving less demand for our exports and lower commodity prices. Australia is likely to avoid a...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
26 February
Key points So far shares have been relatively resilient, but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – What’s driven the fall in the $A? – Does it threaten inflation and RBA easing?
22 January
Key points The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it
18 December
Key points – Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. – But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from over 2% pa in...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared
20 November
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces...[Read More]