Economist
Oliver’s Insights – The risk of a US public debt crisis – and implications for shares
11 June
Key points US tax cuts point to ongoing budget deficits around 7% of GDP, a rising trend in already very high public debt and a further rise in already record debt interest payments. While a full-blown US public debt crisis is unlikely, this...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven reasons Australia is likely to avoid recession from Trump’s shock
16 April
Key points President Trump’s trade war poses a threat to Australian economic growth particularly via the indirect impact of weaker global activity driving less demand for our exports and lower commodity prices. Australia is likely to avoid a...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
26 February
Key points So far shares have been relatively resilient, but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – What’s driven the fall in the $A? – Does it threaten inflation and RBA easing?
22 January
Key points The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it
18 December
Key points – Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. – But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from over 2% pa in...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared
20 November
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Nine bad habits of ineffective investors: common mistakes investors make
23 October
Key points – Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. – As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. – The easiest way to avoid many of...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Will house prices crash? And what’s needed to fix housing affordability
28 August
Key points – Predictions of an Australian house price crash create lots of interest but have been a dime a dozen over the last 20 yrs. – However, there is more to the surge in property prices than easy money with a supply shortfall being the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Why super and growth assets like shares really are long term investments
21 August
Key points – While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. – The best approach...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Recession fears & share mkt falls – what it means for the RBA & investors?
7 August
Key points – The risk of recession is high. – The falls in shares and commodity prices reflect this. – Lower growth and recession would mean a high risk of the inflation rate undershooting the RBA’s inflation target. – The RBA should be...[Read More]